Δευτέρα, Φεβρουαρίου 20, 2012

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Germany, Greece Quietly Prepare For "Plan D"

For several weeks now we have been warning that while the conventional wisdom is that Europe will never let Greece slide into default, Germany has been quietly preparing for just that. This culminated on Friday when the schism between Merkel, who is of the persuasion that Greece should remain in the Eurozone, and her Finmin, Wolfgang "Dr. Strangle Schauble" Schauble, who isn't, made Goldman Sachs itself observe that there is: "Growing dissent between Chancellor Merkel and finance minister Schäuble regarding Greece." We now learn, courtesy of the Telegraph's Bruno Waterfield, that Germany is far deeper in Greece insolvency preparations than conventional wisdom thought possible (if not Zero Hedge, where we have been actively warning for over two weeks that Germany is perfectly eager and ready to roll the dice on a Greek default). Yet it is not only Germany that is getting ready for the inevitable. So is Greece.

From the Telegraph: "The German finance ministry is actively pushing for Greece to declare itself bankrupt and to agree a "haircut" on the bulk of its debts held by banks, a move that would be classed as a default by financial markets.Eurozone finance ministers meet on Monday to approve the next tranche of loans from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, designed to stave off national bankruptcy while the new Greek government puts the country's finances in order. But the severe austerity measures being demanded have caused such fury in Greece, and the cuts required are so deep, that Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, does not believe that any government would be able to implement them." Funny - it is as if Schauble almost knows that any self-respecting country would tell Germany to go to hell. Then again, this is Greece, whose puppet government is one which only answers to banker demands. And we hardly have to remind readers that of every dollar in bailout cash, Greece only sees 19 cents of it. Then again this is Greece, which is full of sound and fury for a day or two, then is happy to pick up the bar of vaseline for the next 6 months until the cycle repeats anew.

ο καπιταλισμός της καταστροφής

Krugman: Pain, No Gain

Last week the European Commission confirmed what everyone suspected: the economies it surveys are shrinking, not growing. It’s not an official recession yet, but the only real question is how deep the downturn will be.

And this downturn is hitting nations that have never recovered from the last recession. For all America’s troubles, its gross domestic product has finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak; Europe’s has not. And some nations are suffering Great Depression-level pain: Greece and Ireland have had double-digit declines in output, Spain has 23 percent unemployment, Britain’s slump has now gone on longer than its slump in the 1930s.

Worse yet, European leaders — and quite a few influential players here — are still wedded to the economic doctrine responsible for this disaster.

For things didn’t have to be this bad. Greece would have been in deep trouble no matter what policy decisions were taken, and the same is true, to a lesser extent, of other nations around Europe’s periphery. But matters were made far worse than necessary by the way Europe’s leaders, and more broadly its policy elite, substituted moralizing for analysis, fantasies for the lessons of history.

Specifically, in early 2010 austerity economics — the insistence that governments should slash spending even in the face of high unemployment — became all the rage in European capitals. The doctrine asserted that the direct negative effects of spending cuts on employment would be offset by changes in “confidence,” that savage spending cuts would lead to a surge in consumer and business spending, while nations failing to make such cuts would see capital flight and soaring interest rates. If this sounds to you like something Herbert Hoover might have said, you’re right: It does and he did.

Πέμπτη, Φεβρουαρίου 16, 2012

3D spils

Acrylic on paper

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FROM THE MAGAZINE

How Companies Learn Your Secrets

By CHARLES DUHIGG 5:01 AM ET

The exhaustive rendering of our patterns into algorithms has revolutionized what retailers know about us.

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όλο και χειρότερα

A Pound Of Flesh, An Aapl A Day, Cheap HYG Vol

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2012 - 07:00

Europe has moved into the “pound of flesh” stage of negotiations. Everyone just wants to make their point and the probability of a deal is dropping by the day. Europe is running out of time, and is just clueless. Yesterday has to confirm that even for the most optimistic person out there. They decided they should wait until the elections. Then they realized they had to deal with the March 20th bonds. Then they came up with a “bridge loan”. Clearly they didn’t bother to look up the definition of a bridge loan. A bridge loan is a loan that is meant to be temporary and has such punitive rates over time that the borrower is heavily encouraged to pay it back with new debt. This is just a “small” loan but one that is permanent and probably never getting paid back. I’m not sure if they asked the contributors whether they wanted to put up €16 billion which is somehow now “small”. Then noise came out that maybe Greece just shouldn’t have elections. The Troika and Greece have been negotiating all this time and no effort was spent on figuring out a plan in the event of default. They are scrambling to come up with one. I remain convinced that Greece could do well in default if it is managed properly, but the chances of them doing anything properly is low.

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μα τι συνέβη στον j95?

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Βλέπω καταβασμένα ρολά και στεναχωριέμαι

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the art of Lillian Bassman

"Blowing Kiss"

( Estate of Lillian Bassman / Peter Fetterman Gallery )

"Barbara Mullen, Blowing Kiss," silver gelatin print circa 1950 by Lillian Bassman.

Lillian Bassman was born June 15, 1917, in New York City, the daughter of Russian Jewish immigrants who allowed her to live a bohemian life from a young age. She met her future husband, photographer and psychotherapist Paul Himmel, at Coney Island when she was 6 and he was 9 and began living with him at age 15 with her parents' blessing. In her youth she reportedly danced with Martha Graham, posed nude at the Art Students' League and, with Himmel, spent many hours at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, where she studied the great painters and began to formulate her distinctive vision and style. El Greco was a favorite.

Δευτέρα, Φεβρουαρίου 13, 2012

Το μνημόνιο στα ελληνικά

Το μνημόνιο στα ελληνικά

Το μνημόνιο στα αγγλικά

Τεχνικό μνημόνιο συνεννόησης

Η αιτιολογική έκθεση

Σχέδιο νόμου

Σύμβαση χρηματικής διευκόλυνσης

Ειδική έκθεση

Εκθεση Γενικού λογιστηρίου του Κράτους

Συνοπτική έκθεση αξιολόγησης

The Troika Blackmails Greece

MIKE WHITNEY
The Troika Blackmails Greece

While EU banks have borrowed more than $600 billion at rock bottom rates (1 percent) for up to 3 years with no-strings-attached, eurozone finance ministers are threatening to push member-state Greece into default over a paltry 325 million euros. A German-led coalition within the Eurogroup has set a 6-day deadline for Greece to agree to additional budget cuts or the struggling country will be denied 130 billion euro loan. Absent the bailout, the Greek government will run out of money sometime in late March and default. This appears to be what many in Berlin secretly seek.

Aside from the 325 million euros of cuts, Greek coalition party leaders will also be forced to make a written commitment that the terms of the agreement will be followed whether general elections are held or not. The troika (The European Commission, the IMF, and the ECB) wants to be sure that it is repaid regardless of a change in government.

Πέμπτη, Φεβρουαρίου 09, 2012

look

Portraits of sexual identity.

Τρίτη, Φεβρουαρίου 07, 2012

surfasing

Oil on canvas

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Δευτέρα, Φεβρουαρίου 06, 2012

so lovely

STRANGELY FAMILIAR, YET UNKNOWN by Dc Kostas on Mixcloud

ξανά στο σημείο μηδέν

A Shift In European Sentiment - Is Germany Prepared To Let Greece Default?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/06/2012 07:28 -0500

Something quite notable has shifted in recent weeks in Europe, and it originates at the European paymaster - Germany. While in the past it was of utmost importance to define any Greek default as voluntary (if one even dared whisper about it), and that the money allocated to keep the Eurozone whole would be virtually limitless, this is no longer the case. In fact, reading between the headlines in the past week, it becomes increasingly obvious that Greece will very soon become a new Lehman, i.e., a case study where the leaders are overly confident they can predict the outcomes of letting a critical entity default, and manage the consequences. Alas, this only proves they have learned nothing from the Lehman case, and the aftermath is still not only unpredictable but uncontrollable. But that's a bridge that Europe will cross very shortly. In the meantime, here is UBS summarizing the palpable change in European outlook over Greece, and over the entire "Firewall" protocol.

The German government seems uneasy about the firewall discussion. Some German media recently carried stories that a 'super rescue umbrella' would be agreed at the next summit on 1 March, amounting to €1.5 trillion, a number arrived at by adding up the €500bn of the ESM, the €440bn of the EFSF (though only about €250bn remain available) and the $500bn that managing director Lagarde has been seeking in additional financing for the IMF. There is a sense that trying to impress the market with a large number may once again backfire as analysts would quickly shoot down in any such attempt, for example by arguing that the IMF money would not actually be earmarked for the Eurozone, or more seriously maybe, that countries such as Spain and quite possibly France may come to be seen as unable to contribute ever more rescue funds. Instead, it is felt that the preferable option may be to point out that the ESM will be a much better designed and effective instrument than the EFSF, and that €500bn is enough for the problems at hand.

One gets the sense that the German government is not a priori unwilling to commit more financing to crisis management, but not now and only if it becomes clear that really the existing funds are insufficient. Also, there is a view that the government may at times have listened too much to advice from market sides, which then led to initial positions that subsequently needed to be revised. For example, bank recapitalisation was mentioned as something that ultimately seems to have done more harm than good and is now widely criticised for accelerating deleveraging. Also, the insistence that any Greek restructuring had to be 'voluntary' initially stemmed from fear of upsetting markets, but has now come to be criticised as having serious adverse implications such as undermining the sovereign CDS market. As a result, the German government may now be more inclined to stay firm on the firewall discussion and insist that €500bn for the ESM is sufficient for now.

While this step was inevitable from the beginning, what also was inevitable was the fact that leaders would be forced to exude confidence over what happens next. The truth is that they have no idea. Because if Paulson was proven 100% wrong in under 5 days following the Lehman default, when the money markets broke and the Fed has to literally force a bailout of the global financial system, what can one say about two bit second tier politicians from Europe, who have never even seen a DCF model?