η μεγάλη απάτη

Of course, much of the world's elite understand exactly what they're doing: i.e., use the economic catastrophe they themselves created as a pretext to kill the welfare state they've despised for 65 years. Nonetheless, a significant chunk of them actually believe they're doing the right thing for everyone.

How is this possible? The best explanation I've seen appears in a 1994 book by John Ralston Saul called The Doubter's Companion. It's a kind of dictionary—the whole book is just him defining and discussing a bunch of words. And one thing he defines is "debt, unsustainable levels of." Everything you need to understand about our current attempt to obliterate ourselves can be found within it. His most important point is that money is not real. Yet somehow we've decided it's a great idea to stop feeding real food to real people and cease educating real children in order to demonstrate fealty to an abstract concept.

My favorite parts are these, but you should go below the fold and read the whole thing:

A nation cannot make debts sustainable by cutting costs. Cuts may produce marginal savings, but savings are not cash flow. This is another example of the alchemist’s temptation...

Civilizations which become obsessed by sustaining unsustainable debt-loads have forgotten the basic nature of money. Money is not real. It is a conscious agreement on measuring abstract value. Unhealthy societies often become mesmerized by money and treat it as if it were something concrete. The effect is to destroy the currency’s practical value.

more

τουλάχιστον κάποιοι αντιδρούν

...

οι Δουβλινέζοι

In Ireland, a Picture of the High Cost of Austerity

By LIZ ALDERMAN

DUBLIN — As Europe’s major economies focus on belt-tightening, they are following the path of Ireland. But the once thriving nation is struggling, with no sign of a rapid turnaround in sight.

Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

“When our public finance situation blew wide open, the dominant consideration was ensuring that there was international investor confidence in Ireland so we could continue to borrow,” said Alan Barrett, chief economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of Ireland. “A lot of the argument was, ‘Let’s get this over with quickly.’ ”

Rather than being rewarded for its actions, though, Ireland is being penalized. Its downturn has certainly been sharper than if the government had spent more to keep people working. Lacking stimulus money, the Irish economy shrank 7.1 percent last year and remains in recession.

Joblessness in this country of 4.5 million is above 13 percent, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed — those out of work for a year or more — have more than doubled, to 5.3 percent.

Now, the Irish are being warned of more pain to come.

“The facts are that there is no easy way to cut deficits,” Prime Minister Brian Cowen said in an interview. “Those who claim there’s an easier way or a soft option — that’s not the real world.”

Despite its strenuous efforts, Ireland has been thrust into the same ignominious category as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. It now pays a hefty three percentage points more than Germany on its benchmark bonds, in part because investors fear that the austerity program, by retarding growth and so far failing to reduce borrowing, will make it harder for Dublin to pay its bills rather than easier.

Other European nations, including Britain and Germany, are following Ireland’s lead, arguing that the only way to restore growth is to convince investors and their own people that government borrowing will shrink.

[...]

κόκκινα τριαντάφυλλα

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πυροβολόντας το πόδι μας

Krugman: The Third Depression

[...]

Why the wrong turn in policy? The hard-liners often invoke the troubles facing Greece and other nations around the edges of Europe to justify their actions. And it’s true that bond investors have turned on governments with intractable deficits. But there is no evidence that short-run fiscal austerity in the face of a depressed economy reassures investors. On the contrary: Greece has agreed to harsh austerity, only to find its risk spreads growing ever wider; Ireland has imposed savage cuts in public spending, only to be treated by the markets as a worse risk than Spain, which has been far more reluctant to take the hard-liners’ medicine.

It’s almost as if the financial markets understand what policy makers seemingly don’t: that while long-term fiscal responsibility is important, slashing spending in the midst of a depression, which deepens that depression and paves the way for deflation, is actually self-defeating.

So I don’t think this is really about Greece, or indeed about any realistic appreciation of the tradeoffs between deficits and jobs. It is, instead, the victory of an orthodoxy that has little to do with rational analysis, whose main tenet is that imposing suffering on other people is how you show leadership in tough times.

And who will pay the price for this triumph of orthodoxy? The answer is, tens of millions of unemployed workers, many of whom will go jobless for years, and some of whom will never work again.

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δεν υπάρχουν συμπτώσεις σύντροφοι

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eye candy

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coming soon

.


DOC TV



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ζητώ ταπεινά συγγνώμη

χθες έγραψα ένα ποστ στο οποίο ανέφερα τη μεγάλη μπούρδα "οι ελίτ της χώρας - οικονομική και πολιτική"

σήμερα που το διάβασα συνειδητοποίησα ότι ο χαρακτηρισμός "ελίτ" δεν τους ταιριάζει δεδομένου ότι μιλάμε για κάτι μαυραγορίτες και κάτι τελευταία λαμόγια

ζητώ λοιπόν συγγνώμη για τις λάθος εντυπώσεις που έδωσα χθες



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οι μαύρες ημέρες του Ιούνη

Είναι πλέον εμφανές ότι οδεύουμε με γοργά και σταθερά βήματα προς την πλήρη κατάρρευση όλων αυτών που θεωρούσαμε σαν δεδομένα

Εργασιακά δικαιώματα, συντάξεις και μισθοί για χιλιάδες εργαζόμενους θα μοιάζουν σε λίγο με όνειρα του παρελθόντος

Την ίδια ώρα οι ελίτ της χώρας - πολιτική και οικονομική - συνεχίζουν χωρίς κανένα ταμπού και ενδοιασμό να προκαλούν το κοινό αίσθημα, φέρνοντας στον νου την περίφημη ρήση της Μαρίας Αντουανέτας "Ας φάνε παντεσπάνι".

Δεν γνωρίζω πως θα εξελιχθούν τα πράγματα.

Δεν γνωρίζω ποιο θα είναι το άχυρο που θα σπάσει την πλάτη της καμήλας

Το μόνο που γνωρίζω είναι ότι αυτό το πράγμα δεν μπορεί να συνεχιστεί

Έχουμε όλοι μας καθήκον να κάνουμε ό,τι περνάει από τα χέρια μας για να το σταματήσουμε

Όσο παραμένουμε άπραγοι και αδιάφοροι απλά κάνουμε τα πράγματα ακόμα χειρότερα

rise up, people

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eίναι τώρα εδώ και 10 μέρες

που προσπαθώ να ανακτήσω την πρόσβαση στο μπλογκ μου και στο mail μου

έστειλα διάφορα mail στην Google αλλά το μόνο που έπαιρνα για απάντηση ήταν κάτι αυτόματες απαντήσεις από κάτι αυτόματα μηχανήματα

σήμερα πήρα ένα mail που έλεγε ότι λυπάται για την ταλαιπωρία, αλλά εντοπίστηκε παράνομη δραστηριότητα στον λογαριασμό μου

μιας κι εγώ δεν είχα καμία τέτοια δραστηριότητα αυτό σημαίνει ότι το gmail δεν είναι ασφαλές

εκτός αυτού, η εταιρεία που απέτυχε να προστατεύσει το mail μου μου απαγορεύει την πρόσβαση σε αυτόν για 10 ολόκληρες ημέρες

αυτά ...

από το χθες

David Bowie and Elizabeth Taylor embrace upon meeting for the first time,
Beverly Hills, 1975.

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Utter folly posing as wisdom

June 6, 2010, 3:00 am

Lost Decade, Here We Come

The deficit hawks have taken over the G20:

“Those countries with serious fiscal challenges need to accelerate the pace of consolidation,” it added. “We welcome the recent announcements by some countries to reduce their deficits in 2010 and strengthen their fiscal frameworks and institutions”.

These words were in marked contrast to the G20’s previous communiqué from late April, which called for fiscal support to “be maintained until the recovery is firmly driven by the private sector and becomes more entrenched”.

It’s basically incredible that this is happening with unemployment in the euro area still rising, and only slight labor market progress in the US.

But don’t we need to worry about government debt? Yes — but slashing spending while the economy is still deeply depressed is both an extremely costly and quite ineffective way to reduce future debt. Costly, because it depresses the economy further; ineffective, because by depressing the economy, fiscal contraction now reduces tax receipts. A rough estimate right now is that cutting spending by 1 percent of GDP raises the unemployment rate by .75 percent compared with what it would otherwise be, yet reduces future debt by less than 0.5 percent of GDP.

The right thing, overwhelmingly, is to do things that will reduce spending and/or raise revenue after the economy has recovered — specifically, wait until after the economy is strong enough that monetary policy can offset the contractionary effects of fiscal austerity. But no: the deficit hawks want their cuts while unemployment rates are still at near-record highs and monetary policy is still hard up against the zero bound.

But what about Greece and all that? Look, right now sovereign debt problems are taking place in countries with a very specific problem: they’re part of the euro zone, AND they’re badly overvalued thanks to huge capital inflows in the good years; as a result they’re facing years of grinding deflation. Countries not in that situation are not facing any pressure from the markets for immediate cuts; as of this morning, 10-year bonds were yielding 3.51 in Britain, 3.21 in the US, 1.27 in Japan.

Yet the conventional wisdom now is that these countries must nonetheless cut — not because the markets are currently demanding it, not because it will make any noticeable difference to their long-run fiscal prospects, but because we think that the markets might demand it (even though they shouldn’t) sometime in the future.

Utter folly posing as wisdom. Incredible.

UHMM

The EU-IMF adjustment programme for Greece improves on the previous EU position that Greece must bear all the costs of its troubles alone – but not by much.... [T]he new plan is nearly as delusional as the old one. As Arvind Subramanian argued on this page last week, it implies three years of crippling austerity, at the end of which Greece’s flattened economy will have to support a far larger public debt than today’s. (This is assuming things go well.)

The plan resolves nothing. It is a delaying action at best, and a pretty desperate one at that. Default looks ever more likely. This can be planned, with some hope of keeping things orderly – though the best chance of that has now been missed. Or it can be unplanned, after a further period of denial.... The harder question is whether even a Greek default will resolve Europe’s difficulties. My bet would be no.

Greece has a huge primary budget deficit. At least for a time after a debt restructuring it would struggle to find lenders. So even with its debts written down to nothing, it faces a period of fiscal austerity that will be wrenching at best and politically impossible at worst – with no central bank to support demand, and no currency of its own to devalue. The EU says that default must be avoided at any cost. I say default will happen. The EU says exit from the euro is not an option. I would not count on that, either. In any event, the US had better brace itself.

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αριστεροί ξεφτίλες

Για μια ακόμα φορά η ελληνική αριστερά αυτοδιασπάται και αυτοθάβεται αποδεικνύοντας ότι πίσω από τις αριστερές ρητορείες κρύβονται κάτι απίστευτα ανθρωπάκια αποφασισμένα να διατηρήσουν ένα πολιτικό σύστημα που στα λόγια καταδικάζουν, αλλά στην ουσία είναι αποφασισμένα να διαφυλάξουν πάση θυσία.

Στο διάολο να πάτε "σύντροφοι"

on a visit

June 2010

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θεά Έλεν Τόμας

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bravo

Άννα να κλαις

τι φοράει θεέ μου;

σε μαύρο και άσπρο

Marlon Brando and Ron Galella, November 26, 1974.

Photo: Paul Schmulbach/Ron Galella Ltd.

σαν παλιές αγάπες

Μάιος 2010

...

fuck the markets

From Greece to Spain

The Eurozone's Self-Inflicted Crisis

By MARK WEISBROT

The current turmoil in financial markets around the world is another illustration of the damage that can be done by a bloated and politically powerful financial sector, combined with finance ministers and central bankers who identify with this sector and have their own right-wing policy agenda.

Welcome to Europe, which has become the epicenter of the new global “financial crisis.”

On Tuesday, the focus of Europe’s troubles shifted somewhat from Greece to Spain.

At first glance it’s not obvious that there should be a crisis in Europe at all. Even if Greece were to default on its debt – and this would most likely be a rescheduling or a restructuring rather than a large-scale cancellation of the bulk of Greece’s debt – this would involve a relatively small amount of money compared to the resources that the EU has available to bail out any affected banks. And Spain’s debt is much smaller, relative to its economy, than that of Greece: it’s about 60 percent of GDP, well below the EU average of 80 percent.

But “the markets” have decided that Spain is next in line for attack, and so the price of Credit Default Swaps – a type of insurance -- on their debt shot up today. If this sentiment grows, Spain’s interest rates will continue to rise, and then their debt burden really could become unsustainable.

To make it worse, “the markets” can’t seem to decide what they want from these governments in order to love them again. Two weeks ago the Euro was plummeting because the financial markets wanted more blood: they wanted Greece, Spain, Portugal, and the other currently victimized countries of Europe (Italy and Ireland) to commit to more spending cuts and tax increases. Then they got what they wanted, and within a day or two, the Euro started crashing again because “the markets” discovered that these pro-cyclical policies would actually make things worse in the countries that adopted them, and reduce growth in the whole Eurozone.

Unfortunately the European authorities – especially the European Central Bank – are even worse than the markets. They are less ambivalent and more committed to punishing the weaker economies by having them cut spending even if it causes or deepens recession and mass unemployment (over 20 percent in Spain).

It will be recalled that the turmoil in financial markets took a big turn for the worse on May 6 when the European Central Bank announced that it was not going to engage in “quantitative easing” – creating money – in order to help ease the crisis. They reversed their decision, but only partially. And the agreement reached for the so-called “trillion dollar bailout” requires that any country borrowing the funds must agree to more austerity. This means that if a country like Spain does run into trouble due to increased borrowing costs, tapping the “bailout” funds will force them to accelerate a downward economic spiral. And where is the inflation that the ECB is worried about? The Eurozone is projected by the IMF to have 1 percent inflation for this year and 1.5 percent next year.

Imagine how much worse the United States economy would be today if, instead of responding to our recession with fiscal stimulus, near zero interest rates and a doubling of the Fed’s balance sheet – we had opted for budget cuts and tax increases. That is what the European authorities are advocating for the weaker Eurozone economies.

The Greek population refuses to accept these conditions, and understandably so. The upper classes in Greece don’t pay their taxes, and now the majority are being forced to pay the price for their cheating – a price greatly magnified by the irrational, pro-cyclical nature of the adjustment. Unrest is growing in Spain as well, with the largest unions talking about a general strike.

There is a class dimension to all of this, with the EU authorities and the bankers united in wanting to balance the books on the backs of the workers – and adopt “labor market reforms” that will weaken labor and redistribute income upward for generations to come. The EU authorities and financiers believe that real wages must fall quite sharply in these countries in order to make them internationally competitive – but the protestors are responding with a fiscal version of “No justice, no peace.”

They might add: “No justice, no euro.” From the beginning there have been serious economic questions about the viability and the desirability of the common currency – most importantly whether such a currency union was feasible among countries with greatly different productivity levels, no common fiscal policy, and a Central Bank committed only to maintaining very low inflation (without regard to employment).

The populations now suffering under EU-imposed austerity must have a real and credible threat to get out – or they will end up with indefinite sacrifice for the reward of lower living standards.

Mark Weisbrot is an economist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. He is co-author, with Dean Baker, of Social Security: the Phony Crisis.

This article was originally published in The Guardian .

the panic button

BBC Newsnight held another great financial round table discussion (why do these occur only in Canada and across the Atlantic? Is it so difficult to have 20 minutes of commercial free debate here in the US where people can actually tell the truth?) which brought together Hugh Hdenry, Gillian Tett and Jeffrey Sachs. As usual, Hendry takes it odd with a bang: "I would recommend you panic. The European banking system is in a crisis." He continues: "Let's purge this system of its rottenness. Let's take on a recession. It's going to be tough, people are gonna lose their jobs. They are going to lose their jobs anyway. We can spread this over 20 years, or we can get rid of it over 3 years." Of course, the Columbia professor, is completely against purging the system: how else can US higher "educators" continue to indoctrinate generation after generation with the flawed principles of a bankrupt ideology, and continue getting getting paid handsomely if there is an global reset? Even funnier, Jeffrey Sachs loses it when Hendry calls him out on his BS at 5 minutes into the clip. The ensuing smackdown is worth the price of admission alone.

do they?

The Greeks Get It

By Chris Hedges

Here’s to the Greeks. They know what to do when corporations pillage and loot their country. They know what to do when Goldman Sachs and international bankers collude with their power elite to falsify economic data and then make billions betting that the Greek economy will collapse. They know what to do when they are told their pensions, benefits and jobs have to be cut to pay corporate banks, which screwed them in the first place. Call a general strike. Riot. Shut down the city centers. Toss the bastards out. Do not be afraid of the language of class warfare—the rich versus the poor, the oligarchs versus the citizens, the capitalists versus the proletariat. The Greeks, unlike most of us, get it.

The former right-wing government of Greece lied about the size of the country’s budget deficit. It was not 3.7 percent of gross domestic product but 13.6 percent. And it now looks like the economies of Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal are as bad as Greece’s, which is why the euro has lost 20 percent of its value in the last few months. The few hundred billion in bailouts for other faltering European states, like our own bailouts, have only forestalled disaster. This is why the U.S. stock exchange is in free fall and gold is rocketing upward. American banks do not have heavy exposure in Greece, but Greece, as most economists concede, is only the start. Wall Street is deeply invested in other European states, and when the unraveling begins the foundations of our own economy will rumble and crack as loudly as the collapse in Athens. The corporate overlords will demand that we too impose draconian controls and cuts or see credit evaporate. They have the money and the power to hurt us. There will be more unemployment, more personal and commercial bankruptcies, more foreclosures and more human misery. And the corporate state, despite this suffering, will continue to plunge us deeper into debt to make war. It will use fear to keep us passive. We are being consumed from the inside out. Our economy is as rotten as the economy in Greece. We too borrow billions a day to stay afloat. We too have staggering deficits, which can never be repaid. Heed the dire rhetoric of European leaders.

[...]

ενάντια στον μονόδρομο

What Happens When Deficit Hawks Set Policy
Meltdown in the EU

By MIKE WHITNEY

Global markets have plunged for more than a month, wiping out more than $5.3 trillion in total market value. Ostensibly, the catalyst was Greece's large deficits, but that's only part of the story. Under the terms of the Maastricht Treaty, (aka--the Treaty on European Union) EU countries are not allowed to exceed the treaty's 3 per cent ceiling on fiscal deficits. The nonsensical treaty basically repeals the business cycle by edict. Are recessions forbidden, too?

Sanctimonious German bureaucrats and heads-of-state have taken up the cause of fiscal probity and turned a thoroughly-manageable matter into a full-blown crisis that could break up the EU and drag the world back into deep recession. Keep in mind, Germany has been the main beneficiary of Greek deficits as reflected in their bulging surpluses. One does not exist without the other; and as Keynes pointed out, surplus countries increase global instability by exerting "negative externality". That hasn't stopped German media from finger-wagging at their "spendthrift" neighbors to the south.

Now markets are in a frenzy; volatility has skyrocketed and gauges of market stress (Libor) are steadily rising. Interbank lending has begun to slow. Greek deficits have uncovered the systemic-rot in the EU banking system which is overloaded with garbage assets and non performing loans, only the EU does not have the fiscal/political infrastructure in place to guarantee the dodgy paper. So the pressure on the banks continues to grow and the prospect of another Lehman crash looms larger by the day.

Meanwhile, in Berlin, embattled politicians--who are 100 per cent certain that the "everyone else is to blame"--are sticking to their Hooverian economics plan; balanced budgets, austerity programs, fiscal straight-jackets all around. This is the deficit hawks remedy, too, the Hoover Solution. Take a good look; this is what the U.S. will look like if the Keynes-bashers, the belt-tighteners, and the deficit gloomsters get their way. Great Depression 2.0. Bet on it.

Deficits create demand. Demand generates spending. Spending generates economic activity. Economic activity generates growth. Growth generates jobs, increases government revenues, reduces deficits and ends recessions.

Simple, right?

When consumers have too much debt, they will not spend no matter how low interest rates are. This is not theory, this is fact.

If the government cuts spending at the same time as consumers, then overall spending declines and the economy slips into recession. This is what the deficit hawks want--a return to recession. This is politics, not economics.

The deficit hawks say "You can't solve a debt problem by adding more debt.” This is a very persuasive argument, but it's wrong. Increasing the deficits, lowers the deficits. This sounds wrong, but it’s right. See a recent article by economist Marshall Auerback:

"Ireland began cutting back deficit spending in 2008, when its banking crisis began to spread and its budget deficit as a percentage of GDP was 7.3 per cent. The economy promptly contracted by 10 per cent and, surprise, surprise, the deficit exploded to 14.3 per cent of GDP." ("The US is not Greece", Marshall Auerback, counterpunch.org)

Ireland is not the exception. Ireland is the rule. A nation cannot starve itself to prosperity nor can it shrink its way to growth. Austerity is fine for monks, but bad for the economy.

Deficit cutting during a downturn creates bigger deficits, higher unemployment, greater economic contraction, and more suffering. Every country that follows the IMF's prescription for belt-tightening, undergoes a mini-Depression. That's because it’s bad economics (or, rather) politically-driven economics. By weakening the state, private industry and speculators hope to grab public assets on the cheap and force privatization of public services. These are the real objectives behind the austerity measures.

When the government is in surplus, the private sector must be in deficit. When the government is in deficit, the private sector must be in surplus. So, when consumers and households must save to make up for lost equity and falling revenue, (such as, after the collapse of the housing bubble) the government MUST increase deficits to keep the economy running, to reduce slack in demand and to lower high levels of unemployment. Without Obama's fiscal stimulus, the economy would not have produced 3 quarters of positive growth. The stimulus (and monetary policy) kept the economy from tipping into a severe recession. Had Obama followed the advice of the deficit hawks (many of who also supported Bush's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan) the country would be mired in another Great Depression. This is worth considering when some Fox lady in a plunging-neckline says "The stimulus did nothing."

Sovereign governments whose debts are paid in its own currency, are not like you and me. They are not fiscally constrained or required to balance their checkbook. Nor should they if it weakens the economy or increases unemployment. The government can spend without risk of going broke because the debt is owed to itself. Yes, this can create inflation when unemployment is low and there is too much money chasing too few goods. But that should not deter government from stimulating the economy when unemployment is 10 per cent, underemployment is 20 per cent, manufacturing is slow, housing is in a shambles, core CPI is below 1 per cent, and the economy is teetering towards outright deflation. Deficits should be increased and sustained at a high level until unemployment and overcapacity begin to retreat. Economists know that consumer deleveraging is a long-term project, which means that government stimulus will be required for a very long time. Get used to it.

Last week, economist James Galbraith was interviewed by the Washington Post's Ezra Klein. Klein asked Galbraith if he thought "the danger posed by the long-term deficit is overstated by most economists?" Here's his answer:

James Galbraith:"I think the danger is zero. It's not overstated. It's completely misstated.

Ezra Klein--"Why?"

James Galbraith---"What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.

So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity." (Washington Post)

Naturally, Galbraith's answer stirred up controversy at the Fox School of Economics where Andrew Mellon's photo is still proudly on display. But Galbraith is right. If the markets were really worried, then yields on long-term Treasuries would go up. But they're not going up, because the economy is still battling deflation. The 10-year Treasury is presently 3.4 per cent, just as one would expect in a Depression. On Wednesday, core CPI came in at 1 per cent. There is no inflation in the system. The inflation doomsters are discredited alarmists who should be ignored. The economy needs more stimulus, more government spending. Here's Galbraith again:

“To put the point firmly.... the economy is recovering because of the budget deficits. Without these budget deficits, there would be no recovery, because it is the deficits that are helping to put more money into households’ pockets. To talk of recovery but to criticize the deficits is ridiculous. The whole point of this thing [stimulus spending] is to add to the deficit. The patient is recovering from a deadly illness and yet the press is attacking the medicine....”

"The deficit and the public debt of the U.S. government can, should, must, and will increase in this crisis. They will increase whether the government acts or not. The choice is between an active program, running up debt while creating jobs and rebuilding America, or a passive program, running up debt because revenues collapse, because the population has to be maintained on the dole, and because the Treasury wishes, for no constructive reason, to rescue the big bankers and make them whole.” ("Galbraith: deficits are the solution not the problem", John Hanrahan, Nieman Watchdog)

Not all deficit spending is good. John Maynard Keynes never advocated bailing out underwater financial institutions run by crooks, and yet, that has been the essential Fed policy from Day 1. Keynes believed that markets were fundamentally unstable; that government had a role to play in smoothing out capitalism's excesses, reducing inequality and creating jobs. He also believed that slumps will last much longer than necessary if government does not intervene and stimulate demand.

The value of deficits depends on how the money is spent. The $700 billion TARP was largely wasted on financial institutions that should have been nationalized, broken up, and their toxic assets put up for auction. The $787 billion stimulus, on the other hand, was largely a success, because it provided urgently needed relief for the states, benefits for unemployed workers, tax cuts and infrastructure programs. Experts belief the stimulus increased employment by roughly 2 million workers and raised GDP by 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Stimulus is not a panacea, and no one ever said it was. It's an emergency blood-transfusion to get a sickly patient through a violent trauma. It did what it was designed to do, and it paid for itself via the uptick in economic activity and growth.

Catch this from the April 2010 IMF World Economic Outlook:

"Fiscal policy provided major support in response to the deep downturn, especially in advanced economies.....Fiscal balances have deteriorated, mainly because of falling revenue resulting from decreased real and financial activity. Fiscal stimulus has played a major role in stabilizing output but has contributed little to increases in public debt, which are especially large in advanced economies." (Found at Billy Blog, Bill Mitchell)

Repeat: Stimulus has "contributed little to increases in public debt." In other words, the giant deficits are not the result of stimulus (or so-called "profligate" public spending) but of "falling revenue" because the economy is still flat on its back. The message is simple; put people back to work, increase demand, restore public confidence, and spend more money. Now.

το έκλεψα από τον βαγγέλακα

...

αυτή είναι η πράσινη ανάπτυξη που μας έχει ζαλίσει ο Γιωργάκης;

Με γοργά βήματα η μονάδα ηλεκτροπαραγωγής στον Αστακό από το Κατάρ

ΡΕΠΟΡΤΑΖ: Γιώργος Φιντικάκης

ΔΙΑΔΙΚΑΣΙΕΣ ΕΞΠΡΕΣ για την αδειοδότηση της μεγαλύτερης μονάδας ηλεκτροπαραγωγής που έχει γίνει ποτέ στην Ελλάδα, ισχύος 1.010

ΜW, στον Αστακό Αιτωλοακαρνανίας. Δεν έχει περάσει ούτε ένας μήνας από την κατάθεση της σχετικής αίτησης στη ΡΑΕ (23 Απριλίου) και η Αρχή εξέδωσε την Τρίτη την άδεια παραγωγής για τη μονάδα στην κοινοπραξία Αstakos Ρower Ρlan Concorctium, δηλαδή σε χρόνο ρεκόρ σε σύγκριση με άλλες επενδύσεις παλαιότερα.

Η άδεια παραγωγής, ισχύος 30 ετών, αναφέρεται στη δημιουργία μονάδας συνδυασμένου κύκλου με υγροποιημένο πετρελαϊκό αέριο (Liquid Ρetroleum Gas- LΡG) που θα εγκατασταθεί στη Ναυτιλιακή Περιοχή Πλατυγιαλίου του Δήμου Αστακού, έπειτα από συμφωνία με τη Ναυτιλιακή Βιομηχανική Περιοχή Α.Ε., που είναι και η ιδιοκτήτρια της έκτασης, μέτοχοι της οποίας είναι οι τράπεζες Αlpha Βank, Εμπορική και Πειραιώς. Το κείμενο μάλιστα αναφέρει ότι η κοινοπραξία έχει προσκομίσει από τις 7 Απριλίου στη ΡΑΕ επιστολή της Ναυτιλιακής Βιομηχανικής Περιοχής Α.Ε., σύμφωνα με την οποία η εν λόγω εταιρεία εξετάζει αίτημα της Αstakos Ρower Ρlan Concorctium σχετικά με την πώληση στα αραβικά κεφάλαια των εν λόγω εκτάσεων.

Το συνολικό κόστος της επένδυσης υπολογίζεται στα 800 εκατ. ευρώ (μαζί με το σχετικό κόστος CΟ2), με το 70% να χρηματοδοτείται μέσω δανείου και το υπόλοιπο 30% να προέρχεται από ίδια κεφάλαια.

Το εν λόγω ποσό θα εισφερθεί από τους μετόχους της εταιρείας, που είναι οι εξής: Qatar Ρetroleum Ιnternational (23%), Qatar Εlectricity and Water Company (11%), Sabagh abd Κhoury SΑL (33%) και Rosebud Εnergie Deutschland (33%). Η ολοκλήρωση των εργασιών και η έναρξη λειτουργίας της μονάδας προβλέπεται το δεύτερο εξάμηνο του 2013, ενώ η αναμενόμενη διάρκεια ζωής της αναμένεται να υπερβεί τα 25 χρόνια.

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από τα σημερινά Νέα

[Δρόµοι]

Του Ρούσσου Βρανά

rvranas@otenet.gr

Τα µαθήµατα...

... από την Ιστορία µας έχουν διδάξει πως πολλές φορές ένα φάρµακο µπορεί να αποδειχθεί χειρότερο από την αρρώστια. Το φάρµακο που χορηγήθηκε κάποτε στις χρεωµένες χώρες της Λατινικής Αµερικής χορηγείται σήµερα και στις χώρες της Βαλτικής και των Βαλκανίων µε παρόµοιες ολέθριες παρενέργειες.

Καµιά κυβέρνηση...

... δεν πρέπει να υπογράφει συµφωνίες οι οποίες το µοναδικό που µπορούν να εγγυηθούν πραγµατικά είναι µια µακροχρόνια ύφεση (µε την αόριστη ελπίδα πως όταν ανακάµψει η παγκόσµια οικονοµία θα ανακάµψει και η οικονοµία της χώρας της). Αυτό το γνωρίζουν καλά οι οικονοµολόγοι, ακόµη κι εκείνοι που διαπραγµατεύονται τέτοιες συµφωνίες για λογαριασµό του Διεθνούς Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου. Η διαδικασία της εσωτερικής υποτίµησης που καλούνται να εφαρµόσουν οι υπερχρεωµένες χώρες, οι οποίες δεσµεύονται µε τέτοιες συµφωνίες - που σπρώχνουν επίτηδες την ανεργία σε δυσθεώρητα ύψη προκειµένου να συµπιέσουν τα ηµεροµίσθια και τις τιµές - όχι µόνο δεν είναι δίκαιη, αλλά δεν είναι και βιώσιµη, ιδιαίτερα για χώρες που έχουν υψηλό πρωτογενές έλλειµµα. Είναι όµως άραγε αυτός ο µοναδικός δρόµος που µπορούν να ακολουθήσουν;

Τη στρατηγική...

... της εσωτερικής υποτίµησης επιχείρησε και η Αργεντινή από τα µέσα της δεκαετίας του 1980 µέχρι το 2001. Και η ύφεση που ακολούθησε βύθισε τη µισή χώρα στη φτώχεια. Τότε η Αργεντινή αποσύνδεσε το εθνικό της νόµισµα από το δολάριο και δήλωσε αδυναµία αποπληρωµής του χρέους της προς τους ξένους πιστωτές της. «Η οικονοµία της συρρικνώθηκε άλλο ένα τρίµηνο», γράφει στους «Τάιµς της Νέας Υόρκης» ο οικονοµολόγος Μαρκ Ουάισµπροτ, διευθυντής του Κέντρου Οικονοµικής και Πολιτικής Ερευνας. «Κατόπιν όµως ακολούθησε ισχυρή ανάκαµψη και η οικονοµία της Αργεντινής αναπτύχθηκε συνολικά 63% τα επόµενα έξι χρόνια. Αντίθετα, η στρατηγική της εσωτερικής υποτίµησης υπόσχεται όχι µόνο µια παρατεταµένη ύφεση αλλά και µια πάρα πολύ αργή ανάκαµψη, κι αυτό µε την προϋπόθεση πως δεν θα αποτύχει εντελώς. Οι προβλέψεις του Διεθνούς Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου για τη Λετονία και την Εσθονία το δείχνουν ξεκάθαρα. Αυτές οι χώρες θα χρειαστούν 8-9 χρόνια ώσπου να επιστρέψουν πάλι στα επίπεδα που βρίσκονταν προτού βυθιστούν στην ύφεση».

Τι πρέπει...

... να κάνει µια χώρα όταν πρέπει να επιλέξει ένα πρότυπο; Μια µατιά στις χώρες που συγκρότησαν την Ενωση Χωρών της Νότιας Αµερικής (UΝΑSUR) θα ήταν ίσως χρήσιµη. Πολλές από αυτές τις χώρες έκλεισαν τις πόρτες τους στο Διεθνές Νοµισµατικό Ταµείο και ξαναπήραν στα χέρια τους τις οικονοµίες τους. Οι φυσικοί τους πόροι δεν τρέφουν πια την πλεονεξία των αρπακτικών της παγκόσµιας οικονοµίας αλλά υπηρετούν τις ανάγκες των λαών τους και την ανάπτυξη των χωρών τους. Ποια είναι προτιµότερη στρατηγική για µια χώρα που θέλει να είναι ανεξάρτητη; Αυτή ή η άνευ όρων παράδοση του λαού της στις βδέλλες του παγκόσµιου χρηµατοπιστωτικού συστήµατος για µόνιµη αφαίµαξη;

κωστάκη, αυτό το λουλουδάκι για σένα ;)

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για τους ποδοσφαιρόφιλους

Photograph by Annie Leibovitz.

το σκοτάδι ταξιδεύει γρηγορότερα από το φως

...

μπορώ πλέον να στείλω τον Αινστάιν για ύπνο και να βάλω υποψηφιότητα για Νόμπελ μεταφυσικής?


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Το ιρλανδέζικο θαύμα

Eurozone Crisis: The Very Bad Luck Of The Irish

With the European Central Bank announcing that it has bought more than $20 billion of mostly high-risk euro zone government debt in one week, its new strategy is crystal clear: We will take the risk from bank balance sheets and give it to the central bank, and we expect Portugal-Ireland-Italy-Greece-Spain to cut fiscal spending sharply and pull themselves out of this mess through austerity.

But the bank’s head, Jean-Claude Trichet, faces a potential major issue: the task assigned to the profligate nations could be impossible. Some of these nations may be stuck in a downward debt spiral that makes greater economic decline ever more likely.

Prime Minister George Papandreou said this week that Greece needs to see strong investment in order for the austerity program to work. While the government cuts fiscal spending, he said, it needs new private business to employ the dismissed workers so that they are productive, can pay taxes and do not need unemployment benefits.

The problems are strikingly reminiscent of Latin America in the 1980s. Those nations borrowed too heavily in the 1970s (also, by the way, from big international banks) and then — in the face of tougher macroeconomic conditions in the United States — lost access to capital markets. For 10 years they were stuck with debt overhangs, just like the weak euro zone countries, which made it virtually impossible to grow.

Debt overhangs hurt growth for many reasons: business is nervous that taxes will go up in the near future, the cost of credit is high throughout society, and social turmoil looms because continued austere policies are needed to reduce the debt. Some Latin America countries lingered in limbo for a decade or more.

Mr. Trichet and Mr. Papandreou can look more closely at home to see what might soon be going wrong. Ireland was one of the first nations to introduce tough fiscal austerity in this cycle — in spring 2009 the government slashed public-sector spending and raised taxes. Despite the cuts, the European Commission forecasts that Ireland will have one of the highest budget deficits in the world at 11.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2010. The problem is clear: when you cut spending you also lose tax revenues from people who earned incomes from that money. Further, the newly unemployed seek benefits, so Ireland’s spending cuts in one category are partly offset by more spending in another. Without growth, the budget deficit still looms large.

Ireland’s problems are, sadly, far deeper than the need for simple fiscal austerity. The Celtic tiger’s impressive reported growth over the past decades was in part based on its aggressive attempts to help major corporations in the United States reduce their tax bills. The Irish government set corporate taxes at just 12.5 percent of profits, thus attracting all sorts of businesses — from computer services such as Google and Yahoo, to drug companies such as Forest Labs — that set up corporate bases and washed profits through Ireland to keep them out of the hands of the Internal Revenue Service.

The remarkable success of this tax haven means that roughly 20 percent of Irish gross domestic product is actually “profit transfers” that raise little tax for Ireland and are owned by foreign companies. Since most of these profits are subject to the tax code, they are accounted for in Ireland where they are lightly taxed; they should not be counted as part of Ireland’s potential tax base. A more robust cross-country comparison would be to examine Ireland’s financial condition ignoring these transfers. This is easy to do: a nation’s gross national product excludes the profits of foreign residents. For most nations, gross national product and G.D.P. are near-identical, but in Ireland they are not.

When we adjust Ireland’s figures accordingly, the situation is dire. The budget deficit was about 17.9 percent of G.N.P. in 2009, and based on European Commission projections (and assuming the G.N.P.-G.D.P. gap remains the same) it will be roughly 14.6 percent in 2010 and 15.1 percent in 2011, while the debt-to-G.N.P. ratio at the end of this year is expected — by our calculation — to be 97 percent, and 109 percent at the end of 2011. These numbers make Ireland look similarly troubled to Greece, with a much higher budget deficit but lower levels of public debt.

Ireland’s politicians, rather than facing up to their problems, are making things ever worse. Simply put, the Irish miracle was a mirage driven by clever use of tax-haven rules and a huge credit boom that permitted real estate prices and construction to grow quickly before now declining ever more rapidly. The biggest banks grew to have assets twice the size of official G.D.P. when they essentially failed in 2008. The government has now made a fateful choice: rather than make creditors pay some part of the losses, it is taking the bank debt onto the national balance sheet, effectively ballooning its already large sovereign debt. Irish taxpayers are set to be left with the risk of very large payments to make on someone else’s real estate deals gone bad.

There is no simple escape, but if the government hopes to avoid a sovereign default, the one overriding priority should be to stop bailing out the banks. Instead, the government should wind down existing banks in a “bad bank,” while moving their deposit base and profitable businesses into new, well-capitalized banks that can function without a taxpayer burden. This will be messy, but it is far better than a sovereign default.

Second, the Irish must take the tough fiscal steps that will be required under any circumstances. The International Monetary Fund and the European Union have made clear that funding is available to Ireland — so the government should use this to bridge the tough journey of fiscal cuts ahead.

Finally, the Irish need to consider seriously whether being in the euro zone is worth the cost. The adjustment to this awful situation would be far easier outside the euro zone — even though leaving the zone might have adverse repercussions for other nations. Once again, a comprehensive program with European Union/I.M.F. support might make this the least worse option.

Given the depths of Ireland’s problems, it is no wonder the markets are looking with skepticism at the announced bailout package for the entire euro zone provided by the E.U. and the I.M.F. Policy makers are still not dealing with the core problems of each nation in the euro zone. With the debt hangovers remaining, who will want to invest in Europe’s periphery, and so how can Greece, let alone Ireland, grow? One thing we can be sure of: Europe’s political leaders are doomed to be spending much more time at emergency meetings in Brussels over the coming months and years.

Πράσινη ανάπτυξη και πράσινα άλογα

Αν αυτό που ζούμε δεν είναι η μεγαλύτερη κλεψιά που έχει γίνει τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες τότε δεν ξέρω τι είναι.

Πρόκειται απλά για μια μεταφορά των χρημάτων από τα αποθεματικά της μεσαίας τάξης στα θησαυροφυλάκια των τραπεζών για να καλυφθούν τα στοιχήματα που έβαζαν μεταξύ τους οι τραπεζίτες, τα αμοιβαία κεφάλια και οι λοιποί κερδοσκόποι και τα οποία έχουν τινάξει την παγκόσμια οικονομία στον αέρα.

Σε λίγο θα ακολουθήσουν οι καταθέσεις.

Εν τω μεταξύ μας λένε ότι πρέπει να δίνουμε σήμερα 400 ευρώ τον μήνα για να πάρουμε σε σαράντα χρόνια 360 ευρώ τον μήνα.

Λαμπρά ...

bad news anyone?

Major Investment Bank: "Greece Is Going Down, Germany Drafting Law For Orderly Insolvencies"

Zero Hedge has long claimed that Greece will be forced to default, with the only question being how this will be structured by Europe in a way to not allow the evil speculators to make buck on this process. Today, Greece shot itslef in the foot a little after announcing its latest debt number, which makes any expectations of climbing out of its Keynesian hole even more laughable.

As Market News reports, "Greece's general government debt rose to E310.3 billion in 1Q from E298.5 billion at the end of last year, according to data released Wednesday by the General Logistics Office of the Finance Ministry." That austerity sure is doing miracles already. But it doesn't matter: it appears that Germany has already made its mind to let Greece drown.

As Neil Hume at Alphaville reports, "Big IB to clients: "they have it all planned: they are going to sink the ship (greece). Merkel is now drafting law for orderly insolvencies, but they don't want anyone to make money out of it, hence the ban."" If this is true, it 's curtains for Europe. Shorting the Euro at this point is like shorting Lehman: you may see savage short covering squeezes but the end result is well known.

μια μέρα στο Ναύπλιο

Μάιος 2010

...

βαριέμαι να μεταφράζω

Today, we look at Greece and see the same tell-tale signs: the IMF imposing strict austerity measures as a condition for the banks to lend more money to them (as if a country collapsing under the burden of debt can overcome that by getting into even more debt!!), the mainstream media speaking vociferously on the need for "Greece to do things correctly and responsibly" (as if the US FED, the Bank of England, Goldman Sachs and the US Treasury, Greenspan, Bernanke, Paulson, Brown, Geithner, Blankfein, Greenberg were examples of responsible accountability), local caretaker governments doing all they can on behalf of banking interests (George Papandreou is a regular at the Bilderberg and Trilateral Commission meetings, as was Fernando de la Rúa, a founding member of the local chapter of the Council on Foreign Relations in Argentina called CARI), major banks such as Goldman Sachs trying to collect their pound of flesh in the midst of all the turmoil and hardship; all of this against a backdrop of desperate citizens taking to the streets to express what is obvious to all: that international bankers and local caretaker government form a complex association of thieves and robbers.

The inevitable then occurs: the Government sends the police out to the streets to protect the bankers, themselves and New World Order power elite interests... Then violence flares up, people get hurt and die.... The poor (police) battle against the poor (population), whilst the rich look on from a safe distance with a chuckle...

Make no mistake: this is a Global Model. Make no mistake: there is NO democracy, not even in Athens, its birthplace.... So, who's next? Spain?, Italy? Portugal? Will the European Monetary System just blow up to pieces? A 750 Billion Euro Bail-out will send the recently born (still in diapers) Euro into a tailspin... Will the European Monetary Mechanism fall apart? Will Germany be the first to revert to the gold old Deutsch-Mark?

Will the collapsing Euro and the technically hyper-inflated US Dollar (Shhh! Don't say that aloud!!) pave the way for a new, essentially private Global Currency to be managed on a planetary scale by the private money cartel of the Goldman Sach's, HSBC's, CitCorp's, Deutsche Bank's of this world? Stay tuned... There is much, much more to come...

Greek Banking Crack-Up Exposed

Tolisgate

Greek tourism minister quits because her husband is a tax cheat

Here's your situation in Greece in a nutshell: The Associated Press is reporting that Angela Gerekou, who is Greece's deputy tourism minister, has resigned because her husband -- a former pop music and film star -- owes millions of euros in back taxes.

These two sound like quite a couple: Gerekou, who is 51, once posed topless in a men's magazine. You can see a family-friendly photo of her by clicking here. Her husband, Tolis Voskopoulos, 70, and his claim to fame, well, I'll just quote from the AP:

Voskopoulos is one of the best-known representatives of Greece’s older generation of popular singers and nightclub stars. His croon lifted him to fame with the 1969 record “Agonia” (Agony), which sold 300,000 copies. He has released dozens of records, and he appeared in several films during the 1960s and 70s, including the 1971 hit “My Brothers, Footloose Tramps.”

There are a lot of reasons why Greece is stuck in such dire circumstances, but here's a big one: it's a nation of fudgers. For decades, thousands of wealthy Greeks have treated income tax as more of a suggestion than a legal obligation. But the government is no more honest. Twice in recent years, Greece has had to confess to the world that it understated its debt. Income and debt deception is in the culture. The AP reports that Greek officials are using satellite photos to track down tax cheats by looking for swimming pools, which they consider to be a sign of taxable wealth. In other words, the fastest way to a Greek tax audit these days apparently is to have a backyard pool.

It's too bad for Greece that it's a tourism official who's gotten dragged down in this because tourism is pretty much Greece's only hope to earn its way out of this crisis. And right now is the start of vacation season.

The Greece debt crisis forced its European neighbors to adopt a $1 trillion bailout plan for the Continent and Greece itself, already rioting, will have to adopt tough austerity measures.

οι πτωχοί δεν φοβούνται την πτώχευση

Go ahead and default, Greece!

CNNMoney - Dody Tsiantar - ‎6 hours ago‎

(Fortune) -- Greece must be feeling a little like Sisyphus these days. Saddled with mountains of debt ...

Wondering what a Greek default might be like? Look to Argentina… Financial Post

Greek Banking Crack-Up Exposed Right Side News

συμβολικά υπέροχο

Iceland, Eyjafjallajökull - May 1st and 2nd, 2010 from Sean Stiegemeier on Vimeo.

κάτι συνέβη στην Κατίνα

Something Happened

By James Howard Kunstler
on May 17, 2010 6:42 AM

Everybody in the world is broke, except for maybe Lloyd Blankfein, and he may not end up broke so much as broken -- by a political meat-grinder that is revving up to turn the world's woes and swindles into a new kind of Long Emergency sausage, to be distributed among the roiling, angry masses as a synthetic substitute for nutriment. Call it a synthetic non-collateralized political obligation.

Something snapped in the world last week and a lot of people around the world sensed it -- especially in the organs of news and opinion -- but this ominous twang was not very clearly identified. It was, in fact, the sound of the financial becoming political. The macro-swindle of a worldwide Ponzi orgy now stands revealed and the vacuum left in its place is about to suck everything familiar into it -- standards-of-living, hopes, dreams, not to mention lives. The political action will be a desperate scramble to determine who and what is able to escape getting sucked into this black hole of annihilation. It's very suddenly shaping up to become an epic in human history.

[...]

What has gone on in Europe the past few weeks is nothing more complicated than a waking-up to how broke they are. We're not quite there yet on this side of the Atlantic. They fired one last bazooka of wishfulness at the enveloping monster of debt and the monster laughed at them, and now they are standing in the windows of palatial edifice of the Euro Union waiting to see who will jump first. Here in the USA, we're still dazed and confused. What for a long time had looked like a game of musical chairs is morphing into something more like a national Chinese fire drill, a pointless running around in circles in the hope that sheer motion will be an adequate substitute for conscious action. In any case, both Europe and the USA are out of bazooka ammo now. Nobody can bail out so much as another lemonade stand. From here on governments really start to crumble.

As in any time of severe turmoil, all political bets are off. There are insinuations in the press, for instance, that the communists will rise up in Greece and overthrow the elected government. That's rich, since communism was flushed down the human race's credibility toilet twenty years ago. The Greek opposition may even call themselves communists, but what on earth could they mean by that? There are no "means of production" left in a country whose economy consists solely of cab-drivers, bellboys, and waiters. There's no "wealth" to redistribute, only the pain of collective economic loss when the tourists stop landing.

Elsewhere in Europe, each national house is being outfitted with a procrustean bed of austerity. The various publics are not going to like lying in them. They ain't no Tempurpedics. History being the shape-shifting demon that it is, I imagine that this time around the Brits will be the ones who elect Nazis --or something like them -- while the still-chastened Germans find themselves in the odd position of becoming Europe's moral guardian -- its sole-surviving "good parent" figure, striving to maintain some residue of collective goodwill in Europe's once-ritzy gated community. Great historical figures always arise from unexpected places -- Corsica, Kentucky. Maybe some great unifying leader even now warms a seat in a Norwegian law school.

[...]

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TRUE SHIT

ξαφνικά δεν έχω καμία άποψη,

αισθάνομαι ανίκανος να εκφράσω και την παραμικρή γνώμη

ακόμα και η ειρωνία, αυτή η παλιά μου φίλη, με έχει προδώσει

η διάθεσή μου είναι μαύρη, το χρώμα μου γκρίζο και η καρδιά μου bleu minuit

δεν ανοίγω το στόμα μου από το τον φόβο μήπως αρχίσω και γρυλίζω

κλείνω τα μάτια και βλέπω μια άβυσσο

τα ανοίγω και βλέπω μια καταστροφή

η μητέρα μου μου πρότεινε να πάρω ένα αντικαταθληπτικό

χθες είδα στον ύπνο μου την Λούκα Κατσέλη

και το κέντρο να καταρρέει

σε αργή κίνηση

που μετά έγινε πιο γρήγορη

[όπως κινούνται οι βρικόλακες στο TRUE BLOOD]

καθώς προχωράμε συλλογικά προς τα προηγούμενα στάδια της εξέλιξης

και χάνουμε τα χαρακτηριστικά που μας έκαναν ανθρώπους

κι αρχίζουμε να μοιάζουμε πιο πολλοί με κρομανιόν,

με ένα παλαιό υποείδος

κάτι ανάμεσα στη Λούσι και τη Στέλα Μπεζεντάκου, στη Ζωζώ και τον Ιαγουάρο

μια μορφή ζωής αποφασισμένη να γυρίσει το συντομότερο δυνατόν στην πρωταρχική λάσπη


...

θυσίες για το τίποτα

More Trouble Ahead

The European Union's Dangerous Game

By MARK WEISBROT

Perhaps the wild swings in financial and stock markets over the last week will make people give closer scrutiny to what is going on in Europe, which would be a good thing for the world. According to most news reporting, markets are worried about a potential default by Greece on its sovereign debt, and the possibility of this spreading to other countries, including Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy.

The agreement by the European Union and International Monetary Fund to provide up to $960 billion of support to the weaker economies, as well as to financial markets, has appeared to calm investors worldwide for now.

But this does not resolve the underlying problem, even in the short run. The problem is one of irrational economic policy. The Greek government has reached an agreement with EU authorities (which include the European Commission and the European Central Bank), and the IMF that will make its economic problems worse.

This is known to economists, including the ones at the EU and IMF who negotiated the agreement. The projections show that if their program “works,” the country’s debt will rise from 115 percent of GDP today to 149 percent in 2013. This means that in less than three years, and most likely sooner, Greece will be facing the same crisis that it faces today.

Furthermore, the Greek finance ministry now projects a decline of four percent of GDP this year, down from less than one percent last year. However these projections are likely to prove overly optimistic. In other words, the Greek people will go through a lot of suffering, their economy will shrink and the debt burden will grow, and then they will very likely face the same choice of debt rescheduling, restructuring or default – and/or leaving the Euro.

The European Union's Dangerous

λες και δεν το ξέραμε

“This bailout wasn’t done to help the Greeks; it was done to help the French and German banks,” said Niall Ferguson, an economic historian at Harvard. “They’ve poured some water on the fire, but the fire has not gone out.”

Fears Intensify That Euro Crisis Could Snowball

MATT TAIBBI : Ο δημοσιογράφος που τρέμει η Goldman Sachs

«Μια τεράστια σουπιά-βρικόλακας γαντζωμένη στο πρόσωπο της ανθρωπότητας που ρουφάει ανελέητα από το αίμα της οτιδήποτε μυρίζει χρήμα».

Με τη φράση αυτή ο αμερικανός δημοσιογράφος Ματ Ταΐμπι περιέγραψε πριν από μερικούς μήνες την Goldman Sachs σε ρεπορτάζ του στο περιοδικό «Rolling Stone» που είχε τίτλο «Η μεγάλη αμερικανική φουσκο-μηχανή».

Η πρόταση αυτή πρέπει να στοιχειώνει τις ημέρες και τις νύχτες των στελεχών του χρηματοπιστωτικού κολοσσού, αφού προτού περάσουν λίγες ώρες μετά την κυκλοφορία του περιοδικού και την ανάρτηση του δημοσιεύματος στην ηλεκτρονική ιστοσελίδα του δημοσιογράφου η συγκεκριμένη περιγραφή είχε κάνει τον γύρο του κόσμου.

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αχ Κωστάκη

χάσαμε και τον τελευταίο φιλέλληνα

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αυτές τις ημέρες φιλοξενώ έναν υπέροχο φίλο μου από την Αμερική

είναι ένας από τους πιο γλυκούς ανθρώπους που έχω συναντήσει ποτέ και μεγάλος φίλος της χώρας μας

έρχεται αρκετά συχνά για διακοπές και πάντα μιλάει με τα καλύτερα λόγια για την Ελλάδα

πριν δύο ημέρες τον έκλεψαν μέσα στο μετρό και του πήρανε το πορτοφόλι με όλες τις κάρτες του και αρκετά χρήματα

ήταν τόσο στεναχωρεμένος που πραγματικά ένοιωσα κάτι σαν προσωπική ενοχή

γιατί τα χειρότερα πράγματα συμβαίνουν στους καλύτερους ανθρώπους?

fuck

ποιος κερδίζει από την κρίση

On Sunday, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund announced they were creating a $955 billion fund to rescue eurozone economies that find themselves in financial peril. This announcement came less than five days after the EU had decided to make $140 billion available to Greece to aid in its recovery.

What few people realize is that the banks holding a substantial portion of Greece's $430 billion of government debt are not being asked to take a single dollar haircut to their investment. This is highly unusual for restructurings that involve the IMF. Typically, to receive IMF funding, a country must engage in not only budgetary and fiscal tightening, but also haircuts to the banks and other debt investors. The idea that companies and countries can restructure without debt investors losing a penny is a relatively new phenomenon. Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke pretty much invented it when they bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Morgan Guaranty and AIG and assured that all of their creditors were paid off at 100 cents on the dollar. And the Greek government debt works out to almost $170,000 per household, which, by definition, is unsustainable and needs restructuring.

People may think that the beneficiaries of this EU largess are the poorer countries of Europe and their people, who have suffered through high unemployment and domestic economies weakened by the crisis. But if the banks lending to countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are going to be repaid in full from the proceeds of these EU and IMF programs, then maybe we need to rethink who actually is benefiting from these programs. This is not lost on the people of Greece, 100,000 of whom took to the streets last week to protest cuts in their government's budget, which was part of the Greek bailout plan. Nor is it lost on Wall Street: on Monday, European bank stocks shot up an average of 20 percent -- a sign that traders are well aware of who the primary beneficiarie

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η ζωή είναι εδώ τα free press είναι αλλού

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more bad news

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Krugman Predicts Greece Will Drop Euro

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Why We Need a New Approach to the Chaos in Europe

After months of denial, the European policy elite finally begins to understand that something is seriously wrong in the eurozone.

But the prevailing definition of the problem is still too narrow -- the consensus in France and, even more, in Germany is that "this is a Greek problem". Even the most negative still think that Portugal and Spain can easily escape serious damage.

This is a major misconception, as we pointed out last week -- and as we have been emphasizing, to anyone who would listen, for more than a year.

If you want to call for a "rescheduling" of Greece's debts -- a position that is becoming increasingly popular among leading north European intellectuals -- that is fine. But you also need to recognize that the policy elite (central banks and ministries of finance) are completely unprepared to handle the consequences, which would be immediate and devastating for other weaker eurozone countries.

You simply cannot do a low-cost or small unilateral restructuring of government debt in this kind of situation; the market will at once take that as a signal that Portugal, Spain, Italy and perhaps even Ireland will face difficulties (in fact, this is exactly what spreads in the 2-year European government bond market are saying today). The French may smile upon such outcomes with a feeling of superiority, but they might also consider not throwing bricks in glass houses.

It is fine -- even appropriate - to emphasize that big European banks have aided and abetted the irresponsible behavior of eurozone authorities. The profound stupidity of these banks-as-organizations is beyond belief, and it is deeply puzzling quite why leading figures in the US Senate would see them as a model for anything other than what we need to euthanize as soon as possible in the global financial system.

But do not fall into the trap of thinking just because "megabanks are bad" (undoubtedly true) that you can whack them with losses and not face the consequences - these people are powerful for a reason; they hold a knife to our throats. For all his hubris, missteps, and over-reliance on Goldman group think, Hank Paulson had a point in September 2008: If the choice is chaotic global collapse or unsavory financial rescue, which are you going to choose?

The Europeans will do nothing this week or for the foreseeable future. They have not planned for these events, they never gamed this scenario, and their decision-making structures are incapable of updating quickly enough. The incompetence at the level of top European institutions is profound and complete; do not let anyone fool you otherwise.

What we need is a new approach, at the G20 level; this can definitely include debt restructuring, but it has to be done in a systematic fashion (and even then there will be a considerable degree of total mess). Such a change in framework for dealing with these issues will not get broad support until after further chaos in Europe, but it now needs to be put into place.

The Europeans will not lift a constructive finger. The leading emerging markets are too busy battening down the hatches (and accumulating ever more massive chests of reserves). And the White House still seems determined to sleep through this crisis. Expect nothing.

Baseline Scenario

το ακούσαμε και αυτό

Δεν κατατίθεται σήμερα το νομοσχέδιο με τα μέτρα γιατί δεν έχουν προλάβει να το μεταφράσουν ... από τα αγγλικά.


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ΕΙΝΑΙ ΨΕΥΤΕΣ

Τρόικα ΕΕ-ΔΝΤ-ΕΚΤ
Αναμένουν στον ιδιωτικό τομέα τη διάχυση των μέτρων

Οι επικεφαλής των αποστολών του Διεθνούς Νομισματικού Ταμείου (ΔΝΤ) και της Ευρωπαϊκής Επιτροπής, κύριοι Πολ Τόμσεν και Σέρβας Ντερόουζ, διέψευσαν ότι ζήτησαν από την ελληνική κυβέρνηση τη μείωση ή την περικοπή μισθών στον ιδιωτικό τομέα.

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